2016 UN Report Shows Risk of Coronavirus Outbreak Enhanced by Environmental Degradation

A 2016 United Nations Report on Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern is getting new attention in light of the global Coronavirus pandemic. A large section of the report details the increasing risk of zoonosis, or the process of animal based viruses mutating to infect humans, which is the process by which coronaviruses infect humans. Zoonosis is particularly dangerous because it introduces novel diseases to humans, and tends to happen in rural areas where the virus can be hard to identify and control. The report specifically links the increased risk of a Coronavirus outbreak to environmental factors such as unsustainable animal agriculture, climate change, and deforestation, while also giving insight to how future outbreaks can be handled.

Deforestation, the report specifies, is a major factor in the increase of zoonotic events in the second half of the 20th century. As animals are forced out of the habitat, they come into contract with each other more, increasing the spread of previously isolated pathogens. When those animals enter human-populated areas to search for food and shelter, this risk of zoonosis dramatically increases, and because these animals are likely interacting with humans for the first time, there is no preexisting immunity. But deforestation impacts disease spread on a microbial level as well. A study mentioned in the report indicates that when factors such as deforestation and habitat degradation place higher evolutionary pressure on organisms, viruses spread, mutate, and evolve more quickly, not only reducing the efficacy of the human/animal biological barrier, but also making that virus more potent and deadly when it does jump the species gap. 

High-density animal agriculture is another high-risk factor of zoonotic events, the study found.  Large populations of the same species of animal in close quarters 24 hours a day dramatically increases the risk of a virus ripping through the entire livestock species, mutating and reproducing until it jumps the species gap. The report specified 2 risks associated with high density animal agriculture: emerging zoonoses and neglected zoonoses. An emerging zoonosis is an outbreak such as the pandemic we are currently in (2020), a completely novel virus that could come from anywhere, that no human is immune to, and sweeps across the globe crippling economies and healthcare systems. But neglected zoonoses typically chronically impacts poor communities, where healthcare is harder to access and a greater proportion of the population works in animal agriculture. A virus that can move freely between animals and humans will chronically impact a community. The animals act as a reservoir for the virus, and it becomes endemic to that specific community. The report warns that while emerging zoonotic events are typically the ones to get the most media coverage, there are more neglected ones that most people never hear about.

The scientific consensus in the report is that climate change will disrupt every aspect of our lives in the next century, and the spread of disease is no different. Changing temperatures and seasonality force animals to change behavior, and increasing wildfires displace animals, all of which increase the chance of zoonosis as animals interact with humans in ways they never have before. Melting ice caps present a risk of exposing pathogens the world hasn’t seen for thousands of years, and decreasing biodiversity means diseases can spread through populations more quickly. The complex relationships of infections and immunities that biodiverse ecosystems rely on for survival are breaking down as the planet warms. Additionally vectors of disease, such as mosquitos, are expanding in range as temperatures warm, and during the Zika outbreak of 2015, studies showed that increasing temperature actually made the incubation period of the virus inside the mosquito shorter. For the first time in recorded history, New York City is in the temperature range for mosquito-to-human Zika infection.  Although COVID-19 cannot be spread by mosquitoes, this effect will certainly make the next pandemic harder to respond to. 

It would be irresponsible and inaccurate to assign all the blame of the Coronavirus pandemic to one factor of environmental degradation, when it is as complex and multifaceted as our modern world. And the report highlights the complex relationship of economic inequality, environmental degradation, and international security. But if world leaders and public health experts ignore scientifically sound reports, they doom future generations to the same strife that we are experiencing currently. The United Nations report tells a scary story of what happens when a virus isn’t isolated and contained. Much like neglected outbreaks mentioned before, a fractured, individualistic response by nations that emphasizes protectionism over cooperation will insure that this virus will keep coming back, disrupting societies and killing people. Only a highly coordinated response driven by science will isolate this virus, especially if it adapts or mutates to potential vaccines. That being said, the report points to effective responses of the past, such as SARS in 2003, and MERS in 2012. Decisive action, a coordinated response, and the cooperation of everyday people was critical in avoiding those crises, and though lessons ring true today as the world scrambles to defeat this virus. Although undoing global spread is impossible at this point, applying tested methods from history, the UN believes, will limit human suffering and save hundreds of thousands of lives.