The California 2070 Project: Sea Level Rise in the Bay Area

The Leaflet is proud to announce “The California 2070 Project”, a brand new regular column where writers from different perspectives and expertises will show you the challenges and opportunities California will face in the next 50 years as our climate changes. With thousands of miles of coastline, millions of acres of fire-prone forests, and some of the most biodiverse regions in the world, California will be uniquely impacted in the next 50 years by climate change, and our lives will change dramatically. But California is also home to 40 million people, the world’s 5th largest economy, and some of the most progressive and innovative policies in the world. Whether it’s a statewide cap-and-trade program, a gas car moratorium, or sweeping conservation programs, California is often on the forefront of environmental protections. We hope to communicate the severity of the problem, but also the excitement and inspiration of the solutions, and show that the Golden State’s best days are still ahead of us. 

Welcome to the California 2070 project.

Record rainfall flooded homes, stores, and the UC Berkeley campus during the Big Blow of 1962. Chicken Creek, a tributary of Strawberry Creek by the fire trails, flooded the Strawberry Canyon Recreation Area and caused considerable damage to the Hass Clubhouse and all the way down to the International House. The floods and landslides created a wall of mud and debris that broke through a ground floor window at IHouse, flooded the lobby, and broke through the main doors. Down on campus, Strawberry Creek flooded its way through ASUC offices and underground basements. The creek, where students would often jump over on their rush to class, grew to over 20 ft. wide behind Dwinelle. Etcheverry, Barrows, Wurster Hall are just a few of the other buildings on campus at the time that were damaged from floods and mud. Residents of the Bay Area are not unaware of the dangers of storm surges and floods, especially with the ominous threat of a changing climate. Some of the worst natural disasters in the Bay Area provide a frightening image of the potential consequences of climate change. Even today, Bay Area residents fear the potential for destructive earthquakes, raging fires, and unaffordable housing. However, our proximity to the ocean and projections for sea level rise pose an existential risk. 

Greenhouse gas emissions play a substantial role in sea level rise by reflecting heat from the Earth’s atmosphere and affecting global temperatures. The effects of increased temperatures are especially clear in the polar regions through melting ice and sea level rise.  If emission rates remain unchanged, California can expect sea level rise of up to 0.8 meters (~31 inches) by 2070. It is difficult to imagine what this change would mean for residents in the Bay Area, which is why there are many tools available to visualize these changes. The Bay Shoreline Flood Explorer is a website created by the Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) Program for Bay Area residents, property owners, developers, and anyone interested in understanding the potential impacts of different sea level change scenarios. If 2070 predictions are accurate, the webtool shows that most of Oakland International Airport runways will be submerged, with tidal shifts and floods likely to cause significant damage. In 2019, San Francisco International Airport announced plans to spend about $590 million on an 8-mile wall by the shoreline to protect damages from rising sea levels and storm surges. But Airports are not the only structures that are threatened by projected sea level rise, many residential areas along the shores of the Bay are expected to face considerable damages, and floods will threaten many residents. Under these scenarios, a 25-year flood could cause significant damage in residences throughout Oakland, Richmond, and other communities along the shoreline. A report from the Pacific Institute concluded that up to 220,000 Bay area residents live in an area at risk to projected rising sea levels. The report also claimed that up to $49 billion worth of property and 110,000 jobs may be lost due to flooding and sea level rise under projected scenarios. The dangers of rising sea levels in the Bay are clear and present a difficult challenge that must be solved. 

The Bay Area is full of bright individuals and organizations that seek solutions to the threats of rising sea levels. The San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission (BCDC) was created in 1965 to address concerns around filling and increasing public access to the natural resources of the Bay. In the early 1960’s, various commercial interest projects sought to artificially fill the San Francisco Bay with dirt, rocks, and debris for shipping and agricultural developments. Three women from Berkeley founded the Save San Francisco Bay Association that mobilized Bay residents to save its wildlife, habitat, and natural resources. Their efforts were successful in the creation of BCDC and secured government funding for Bay protection. The McAteer-Petris Act gives BCDC authority over development projects around the Bay that involve fill. In 2011, BCDC amended their plans to adopt the threats of climate change, and a 2016 report lists their 4 overarching policy priorities as (1) Fill for resilience and adaptation - habitat restoration and protection, (2) Fill for resilience and adaptation - innovative shoreline solutions, (3) Environmental Justice and Social Equity, and (4) Adaptive Management. In 2011, BCDC instituted the Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) Program to work with stakeholders and understand the potential impacts of sea level rise on communities, infrastructure, businesses, and natural habitat. Research through ART provides guidance for local cities to adopt best management practices around climate change. These initiatives provide hope for Bay Area residents to adapt and mitigate the consequences of rising sea levels. However, it is important to address the causes of rising sea levels in order to prevent future damage. The Bay Area is not alone in facing the dangers of climate change, many communities around the world are also at risk. A focus on institutional change and a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required if we want to prevent the potential consequences of rising sea level in the Bay Area.