Democrats lost big in the US House in the 2020 elections but progressives emerged unscathed. Nearly every progressively-aligned candidate kept their seat this year, bolstering the claim that progressive values are in demand. Young people and Black, Indigenous, people of color (BIPOC) want and need bold policies on climate, healthcare, and racial inequity, and their demands were made clear in these elections. As the Democratic House majority dwindles to just four seats, it is becoming evident that a 2022 Democratic majority in the House will depend on the support of these groups that demand progressive legislation. And luckily for the Democrats, progressive legislation like the Green New Deal is not only extremely popular with these groups — it is popular across the political spectrum. Passing the Green New Deal is the Democrats’ key to a 2022 House Majority.
While centrist Democrats may not want to move left and support the Green New Deal, they don’t really have much evidence to explain their stubborn centrism. House Democrats were projected to expand their current seventeen seat majority by another ten to fifteen seats, but so far they’ve lost eleven seats and they’re looking to lose another three when all votes have been counted. Right now, Democrats are expected to have a house majority of four seats. Naturally, House Democrats were angered by these results and it did not even take a day for them to start blaming each other. On a House Democratic Caucus call the morning after Election Day, narrowly re-elected Representative Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) reprimanded the left-wing of her party by saying “No one should say ‘defund the police’ ever again. Nobody should be talking about socialism." Whether Representative Spanberger likes it or not, perhaps “socialism” saved some vulnerable Democratic House members and a lack of “socialism” appears to have led to the downfall of the eleven and counting Democrats who have lost their House seats this year.
10 of the 11 House Democrats that lost their seat this year did not co-sponsor the Green New Deal. Most of these Representatives sat in swing districts and centrist Democrats have pointed to this to back-up their argument that progressive legislation like the GND is not popular. However, Democratic Representatives, like Katie Porter (D-CA) and Mike Levin (D-CA), who sit in republican leaning districts have shown that embracing progressivism yields beneficial results.
Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine, California won election in an R+3 Congressional district (a district where Republicans have a three percentage advantage over Democrats in voter registration) by over four points in 2018 by campaigning on Medicare for All. She hesitated on co-sponsoring the Green New Deal once elected, but has since come out in support of it. Porter was ahead by steep margins in polls leading up to the 2020 election and her Republican opponent essentially gave-up, raising only $1.2 million to Porter’s $15 million. As of late November estimates, Porter won re-election in 2020 by seven points (with absentee ballots still trickling in) and is now running to be the Deputy Chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Instead of steering away from progressive values after getting elected in a Republican district, Katie Porter leaned into them hard and it’s working in her benefit.
Mike Levin, who was elected in 2018 and won re-election this year by six points in an R+3 district, used his support of the Green New Deal to show to his constituents that he is using his power to get work done. After he was declared the winner of his race on November 3rd, he explained that “I have worked across the aisle to improve the lives of the people I serve and deliver results on our local priorities.” Levin worked across the aisle for local environmental and veterans affairs issues and his commitment to his community’s needs is what makes supporting the Green New Deal an asset to his campaign, not a detriment. Levin’s constituents know that he’s working to better their lives and that’s why the Green New Deal is popular across the board — it’s a solution to an existential crisis that will directly better the lives of communities that need it most.
Even after Republicans and moderate Democrats have spent the last two years attacking or dismissing the Green New Deal, it’s still popular. Data for Progress, a polling company found that almost sixty percent of Americans supported the Green New Deal and that only twenty-eight percent disapproved. Eighty-two percent of Democrats, sixty percent of independents, and even twenty-eight percent of Republicans supported the passing of the Green New Deal. The legislation is popular and Democrats are only gaining support if they choose to pass it. The Centrist Democratic idea that passing the Green New Deal would alienate independent, “never-trumpers” does not match with this data.
And while this data is good news for the Green New Deal, what’s even better news is the energy that the Green New Deal has given to youth BIPOC activists and organizers. In the 2020 Massachusetts senate primary, Ed Markey, the incumbent senator and the “father” of the Green New Deal, faced a stiff challenge from Joe Kennedy III, a moderate heir to the Kennedy political dynasty. Early polls showed Markey down as much as sixteen points, but Markey engaged with youth organizers and was carried to an unprecedented victory on their backs with an eleven point margin. Markey would not have been re-elected without the massive volunteer network that he tapped into and he knows it. When the race was called, he credited his win to the next generation and more specifically, the “Markeyverse,” a collection of roughly 100 youth-led twitter accounts that allowed Ed Markey to harness the energy of a generation dead set on passing climate action legislation.
In the 2020 election alone, the Sunrise Movement, a BIPOC youth-led group demanding climate action in the form of the Green New Deal, sent 2.45 million texts, mailed 778,000 postcards, and dialed almost 400,000 voters to get Joe Biden elected. Groups like the Sunrise movement, that harnessed the energy of young and progressive activists, worked hard to elect a centrist President-Elect and the Democratic establishment would be foolish to ignore the asset these organizers provide.
Furthermore, Democrats are losing support among Latinx voters and numbers from the most recent election bring a roadblock for the future of the Democratic Party. A stark example of this is in the 2020 presidential results in Starr County, Texas, which is 96 percent Hispanic. In 2016, Hilary Clinton carried the county by sixty percent. Biden carried it by just five. Latinx voters are not a voting monolith and there are numerous reasons why this drastic shift could have occurred, but one explanation is that Democrats simply aren’t providing Latinx voters with candidates/platforms that address their needs and issues. Latinx voters are disproportionately worried about climate change, with fifty percent of non-latinx voters being concerned/alarmed about climate change versus sixty-six percent of english speaking latinx voters and seventy-seven percent of spanish-speaking latinx voters being concerned/alarmed about climate change. Many Latinx voters are looking for candidates with big plans to address climate change and Biden’s centrist environmental plans may have lacked the appeal needed to garner their support. Democrats must address this drastic loss of support before the 2022 midterms and they can start by advocating for policy that speaks to Latinx voters’ needs.
Democrats are heading into the next Congress with a four seat majority in the House and a potential Republican or tied senate. They face stiff odds at gaining power if they head into 2022 without having passed meaningful legislation (or at least tried to). Democrats have received a call to action from young organizers and Latinx voters and if they fail to respond to it, they risk losing their vital support in the next midterm elections.
If Democrats are willing to embrace their base instead of running away from it, they can harness the energy that they will need to re-grow their House majority and calcify a majority in the Senate. Young progressive activists provided the energy that Joe Biden needed to win the presidency and Democrats would be foolish to not tap into this asset. By passing a Green New Deal, Democrats will give these activists the payment they need to keep organizing and turning out the vote for Democrats. A Green New Deal is Democrats’ key to a future in power and they must seize it.